Lawrence Auster Describes a Possible Rout to Secession

Lawrence Auster, at View From the Right, describes a possible rout to secession.  He writes:

It would seem that the only meaningful cultural/political activity at this point is that which would lead to secession from the tyrannical, lawless, decadent society that America has become. But secession from a nation with which the seceding “nation” is intimately intertwined in the economic, geographical, and every other sense is practically impossible. So where does this leave us?

Here’s a scenario I can visualize. Over time, certain states begin to assert, in relatively small and discrete ways, their independence from the federal government, for example, refusing to obey certain federal mandates, and the federal government, fiscally hamstrung by its reckless spending policies and gradually losing legitimacy, loses the authority and will to force those states to obey. As this process gradually progresses, people who want to be free from the United Socialist States of America move to the more independent states, and people who oppose such independence move to the obedient states. Ultimately, over a period of time that we cannot predict, the two nations would be sufficiently geographically separated that actual secession would become a possibility.

It seems to me that the South is still sufficiently conservative that a new secession could begin where the last one left off.  Which state will be the first to secede?  I see Texas as the best hope for beginning a new secession movement.    Once one has done it successfully, others will be encouraged to follow.